guyumu @ : Beating a straight with a set
Ive been thinking about a hand that I played the other night allot.
I'm on the button, dealt 55 on a R5/R10 table.
4 of us on a flop of 2s5h3s.
Everyone checks to me.
I raise to +-R60. And get one caller.
Turn comes Qs.
The caller raises to R100.
I think for a while, and raise him to R250.
He uses his time bank and spends a whole minute thinking. Asks whether I have a flush,
silence from me, he folds.
He folded A4, he flopped a straight. He was quite pissed about his fold.
I raised to R250 on the turn with a very likely loosing hand.
Am I nuts?
The odds for being dealt a pocket pair - 16:1
Odds flopping a straight - 75:1 (apparently I think it's more like 120:1)
Odds of flopping a set - 7.5:1
Some bad maths here to put it all together...
16*75*7.5 = 9000
That gives me the idea that sitting on a table with a straight draw, and someone having it while I'm holding my set is little.
I'm only going to have this hand once in a while. I could probably make these odds worse by adding more things, but let's skip that.
In the end, someone tried to slow play his straight on a table representing a flush draw.
If he re-raised me the right amount, and the flush came to the table, he would have allot better knowledge of what's going on.
But because he just called me on the flop... he was blind.
Why my turn bet?
I felt this guy might have a flush. Considering he suddenly bet out.
But I tried betting out a possible flush on the flop. So does this guy have a flush? How strong is it?
Does he have a straight? Some people like slow playing a flopped straight.
Does he have top pair? AA KK? Considering he just slow played me... unless he was drawing on a flush...
So I make a strong re-raise. Why the hell so much!?
Well... MOST people want to get as much money in the pot when they have the best hand. It's extremely straight forward.
There's a couple of ways they do this, by calling down bets, or finding the right time to all in or raise big.
The bet is supposed to make him react in such a way as to say what he has.
If he folds, he feels weak. If he calls, he feels weak or strong, if he re-raises again, he feels strong.
Someone can feel strong or weak when bluffing... so the signs I guess are situational.
Thing is, if he called me. I need to be worried too much. There's a significant chance that if he calls me,
that on the river he'll check. This will allow me to check and get a cheap showdown against what could be a better hand.
I would avoid betting the river, this guy is here for a reason. If he's bluffing, he was dumb enough to call the re-raise.
I would avoid calling a bet on the river too though. Depending on the size though.
If he bets the river, he's not messing around. If the bet's huge, it's either still a bluff, or he really does have a very good hand.
If he bet's a smallish bet, it could be to get more in the pot, or to try and prevent me from going over his head again.
If that bet size is reasonable I would consider calling it. But if it's too strong I would easily just fold.
A big bet on the river is either a dangerous bluff, or a monster hand that's both worthwhile folding to.
But it just doesn't matter to me if he's pulling a good bluff. If there's nothing else that helps to point to a bluff,
I cant find a reason to consider a call out.
In the end, the raise on the turn shows value, because the opponent could fold because he has the straight, and not the flush.
He could fold because he had AA and was trying to see where he stands.
It also gives me more information. Someone that's still coming along for the ride is married to that hand.
If I bet the river it will be called. And who would be calling a heavy bet on the river? Usually the nuts.
The question is, would I re-raise if the flush did not show?
I cant see any reason to call, unless I want to take the risk to see if the river might help me.
I do have 10 outs, (to pair the board or 4ofkind). So... sometimes the right bet would help.
I would call if I feel the chances are good I wont get raised on the river. Or a very strong raise for that matter.
But this hand had no way of giving me enough information to know.
My turn re-raise would give me good information in all situations.
Anyways... kinda random, but that's what Ive been thinking bout the hand.
To me it just shows that raising/re-raising is extremely important.
That same night I held JJ on a AKQ flop. I re-raised a raiser, he folded his JJ.
He said afterwards he considered popping a re-raise over me. But in the end, we were in the same boat on different sides.
He's second re-raise wouldve got me to fold. And we both played the hand correctly in the end.
But... sometimes it doesnt hurt to just fold a hand. Depending on your opponent you might just want to fold to a raise on the flop, or the turn.
I guess it's always about finding the right time to do the right thing :D not the wrong time to do the right thing.